![]() 22, for example, investment banking advisory firm Evercore ISI notes that hard seltzer category sales were down -11%, with Truly down -24% and White Claw actually up +3.8%.īoulevard Brewing’s Quirk hard seltzer line almost doubled its volume sales in chain retail in 2022 versus the year prior thanks to a f ocus on local sales. As the second-largest hard seltzer brand behind White Claw, its fortunes do have broad implications for the category’s top-line number, but there are still signs of success: ![]() The Truly brand family will wrap 2022 down about -22% in volume compared to 2021. has had to dramatically walk back projections for Truly’s growth on a near-quarterly basis and Truly’s headline-making declines have obscured the fortunes for other hard seltzer brands, many of which are maintaining or even growing sales. I think it’ll stabilize into a much smaller base.”Įven if hard seltzer does shrink slightly from its current volumes, it would still be on par or slightly ahead of the rest of the entire flavored malt beverage category it’s nested within, bringing in billions of dollars every year.Ĭonclusions about hard seltzer’s “ stunning collapse ” tend to mistake one tree for the forest: That withering tree is Truly Hard Seltzer. “It won’t be like the hard root beer demise. “There are still people that drink it,” Hagle says. Still, Hagle envisions hard seltzer being a single-digit contributor to overall beer sales in five years. Those three ABI brands are among the top-10 largest hard seltzer families, but they’ve also struggled to even maintain market share after their debut years. Olympic Eagle’s portfolio of hard seltzer-which includes Anheuser-Busch InBev (ABI)-owned seltzers such as Bud Light Seltzer, Michelob Ultra Organic Seltzer, and Corona Seltzer-is down -35% by volume in 2022. ![]() Still, there’s no denying hard seltzer sales lately are “soft, soft, soft,” as Chris Hagle, vice president of sales for Olympic Eagle Distributing in Puyallup, Washington, puts it. ![]() At the end of 2022, hard seltzer is basically the number-five beer subcategory by volume in chain retail, coming in behind a near-tie between craft beer and premium plus, a subcategory dominated by Michelob Ultra. (Craft beer’s share of beer is down -0.5% since 2019.) Take that in: Hard seltzer made up a bigger slice of the beer market in 2022 than it did during that pre-pandemic, White Claw-crazed year when the stuff seemed to be everywhere in pop culture. Hitting 10% of dollars was once seen as a dream scenario.įor comparison, craft beer currently makes up 9% of beer volume and almost 13% of dollars in chain retail thanks to a wide range of price points.īy total volume, seltzer will decline about -17% against last year while craft will be down about -11.5%ĭespite these changes, seltzer has still added +4.3% share of the beer category over 2019, the zenith of hard seltzer’s “ain’t no laws” ascendancy. In 2022, malt-based hard seltzers make up 7.4% of total beer volume, and about 9.5% of dollar sales in chain retail stores tracked by market research company IRI. This isn’t a death knell, rather a stabilization point as hard seltzer reaches its maintenance phase. What feels different this time is that hard seltzer growth has, in fact, stalled: For the first year ever, 2022 will end with hard seltzer volumes falling compared to the year prior. drinkers continue to buy millions of cases of the stuff. We’ve been here before: Industry watchers are confident in declaring hard seltzer down for the count, while U.S. Big plays, smart moves, and otherwise curious indicators of beer's possible future. From Barons to Barrels with Captain Pabst.Message in a Bottle with Brewery Ommegang.Beer is Labor with East Brother Beer Co.Let Go or Get Dragged by Jerard Fagerberg.Ferments at Low Temps by Stephanie Byce.
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